Tag Archives | market timing

Think Twice Before Reacting to Market News

Key Takeaways There WILL be a stock market correction at some point in the future. The right portfolio design will help prevent you from being too aggressive (or too cautious) in all market environments. The evidence is clear that corrections cannot be reliably predicted. The market constantly schemes to convince investors to change their portfolio […]

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The 6 Most Loathed Words in Fishing and Investing…

“You should have been here yesterday!” It happens on every fishing trip.  At dinner, a well-intentioned fishing buddy or acquaintance tells you about the unbelievable fishing he experienced earlier that same day just over the mountain.  “You should have been there!” he boasts. Images of rising fish in numbers and sizes of mythical proportions race […]

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Are You Waiting for “Perfect” Investment Conditions?

It was a great day to be out on the river. The weather was beautiful–clear skies and 65 degrees with a pleasant breeze. The newer fishermen in our group didn’t realize that the pleasant weather may have been good for hiking but wasn’t very conducive to catching fish. The old salts among us knew that […]

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New Market Highs & Positive Expected Returns

There has been much discussion in the news recently about new nominal highs in stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. When markets hit new highs, is that an indication that it’s time for investors to cash out? History tells us that a market index being at an all-time high […]

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Why Stock Market Forecasting is Usually Worthless

Even after all these years, the debate over “active” versus “passive” management continues to be a hot button issue in the financial services industry. The idea of stock market forecasting (i.e. market timing) is a concept on which conventional wisdom is based. This belief also just happens to be supported by several powerful industries (Wall Street and the financial media) worth trillions of dollars.

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And the winner is…

We recently completed an experiment to make a point about market efficiency and the wisdom of crowds. The point of the experiment is that together, we know more than we do alone. The collective intellectual horsepower of the markets participants is tough to beat. Witness the failure of most investors to outperform simple benchmarks through […]

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